The Median Canadian
The Median Canadian · Week 2

Talking trade with Türkiye

A Canadian prime minister's first bilateral visit brought agreements on flights, energy and defence. Here is what they mean for Canadians.

Trade data to August 2026
Official statements to October 23, 2026
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The visit, October 22 and 23, 2026

What came out of the visit

The first bilateral visit to Türkiye by a Canadian prime minister.2,5 Tap an item for what it does.

1The opportunity

Türkiye is a big market where Canada sells little

Türkiye imported US$365 billion of goods in 2025, and 0.3% came from Canada.6

Canada sold 72% of its goods to the United States in 2025, its smallest share since at least 1999. Canada's government wants to double sales to other countries within a decade.7,8

What Türkiye's 86 million people bought in 2025, and the part from Canada9,10

Who sells to Türkiye: Canada was its 47th-largest supplier in 20256

Ranks among trading partners. Another 5.7% of Türkiye's imports was recorded without a partner.6

Share of Canada's goods sold to the United States, 1999 to 20257

Türkiye's own import records, in US dollars. Canada's export records, used in the next chapter, are in Canadian dollars and value goods a little differently, so the two do not match exactly.6,11

2Trade deficit

Canada buys more from Türkiye than it sells

The trade deficit was $2.1 billion in 2025. It shrank by almost a quarter from January to August 2026.11

Canada sold Türkiye $1.14 billion of goods in 2025 and bought $3.20 billion. The last year Canada sold more than it bought was 2011. From January to August 2026, Canada sold 8% more to Türkiye and bought 14% less than a year earlier.11

Canada's goods trade with Türkiye, 1988 to 2025, billions of dollars11

Canada soldCanada bought

What Canada sold and bought in 202511

Statistics Canada customs records: all exports to Türkiye (made in Canada or re-exported) and imports from Türkiye. Figures for 2026 can still be revised.11

3Duties

A trade deal could help farmers and shoppers

Türkiye charges 19.3% on Canadian lentils, and Canada about 17% on Turkish clothing.12,13

On the Canadian-made goods sold to Türkiye in 2025, durum wheat aside, duties come to an estimated $64 million, 6.4% on average. On Turkish goods sold to Canada, they come to about $105 million, 3.3%. Lower duties could also bring Canadian clothing makers more competition.12,13,14,15

Estimated duty by product, 2025 trade at 2026 rates

Each product line's 2025 value times its 2026 duty rate. Canadian goods leave out durum wheat, which can enter Türkiye duty-free when used to make exports.16 Türkiye's 10% rate on green lentils ended on April 30, 2026; since May 1, green lentils pay 19.3%, like red lentils.12 Canada's figure uses its regular rates; anti-dumping duties and surtaxes on some steel come on top.13

4Who sells

Three provinces have the most at stake

Quebec, Ontario and Saskatchewan make three-quarters of Canada's sales to Türkiye.11

Saskatchewan's lentil sales to Türkiye fell by almost two-thirds from 2022 to 2025.11

Find your province: what it sells to Türkiye

Sales to Türkiye in 2025: the stronger the blue, the more

Goods made in each province, by province of origin, 2025. Turkish origin: people who reported Turkish ethnic or cultural origin, alone or with others, in the 2021 Census.11,17

5Travel

Canadians get more choice of flights

Istanbul is a global hub: Turkish Airlines flew to 120 countries in 2024, more than any other airline.18

The new agreement allows up to 21 flights a week for each country, up from 12, to any city. Istanbul Airport handled 84.4 million passengers in 2025, eighth in the world.2,19

Trips to Türkiye by Canadians each year, 2010 to 202520

Arrivals of Canadian citizens at Türkiye's borders.

People from Türkiye in Canada17,21,22,23

76,745 people in Canada reported Turkish origin in the 2021 Census. Where they lived, by metropolitan area:

In 2025, Air Canada and Air Transat opposed extra Turkish Airlines flights; WestJet and the Toronto and Montréal airports supported them. The Canadian Transportation Agency turned down both requests.24,25 Air Transat starts flying from Montréal to Istanbul on October 29, 2026.26 Work permit holders rose from 9,415 at the end of 2022 to 27,675 at the end of 2024. The count includes permits held by asylum claimants, and Canada eased rules after the February 2023 earthquakes for people from Türkiye and Syria already in Canada.23,27 Permanent residents are shown to 2025; IRCC's 2026 figures run to August.21

6Energy

Türkiye's nuclear plans open a door for Canada

Türkiye aims for over 20 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2050 and is studying Canada's CANDU reactors.28,29

Türkiye's first nuclear plant, Akkuyu (4.8 gigawatts), is being built by Russia's Rosatom. Türkiye also plans 120 gigawatts of wind and solar power by 2035 and net zero emissions by 2053. In 2024, Canada produced about a quarter of the world's uranium.30,31,32,33

Türkiye's power goals, gigawatts28,31,32,34

Where Türkiye's natural gas came from in 2025, billion cubic metres35,36

Canada's energy sales to Türkiye (oil, gas and coal), millions of dollars11

The energy statement the two countries signed in October 2026 has no commitments to buy or sell. Türkiye's state nuclear company and AtkinsRéalis signed a memorandum in March 2026 to study CANDU technology for Türkiye.4,29,37

7Defence

Military sales to Türkiye are back, with conditions

Canada's government says linking the two defence industries will create jobs and exports.2

Türkiye has NATO's second-largest military. Canada's military exports to Türkiye are mostly imaging and targeting equipment.2,38,39

Canadian military exports to Türkiye each year, millions of dollars39

Permits open, then reopened case by case from January 2024New permits suspended

    The reports leave out most exports to the United States, which need no permit, so ranks are among other destinations.39 The Armenian National Committee of Canada asks that Canada keep full control of export permits in a trade deal.40 Canada can cancel permits if goods are misused.41,42

    8What comes next

    Free trade talks start in Ankara on November 30

    A deal could lower duties in both countries. Once its terms are public, we will break them down in a new post.

    1. October 29Air Transat starts flights from Montréal to Istanbul26
    2. November 9 to 20Türkiye hosts COP31, the UN climate conference, in Antalya1
    3. November 30 to December 4First round of free trade talks, in Ankara2
    4. 2027Canadian trade mission to Türkiye, led by the trade minister2
    5. Date to be setPresident Erdoğan visits Canada1
    How this was done

    In plain words

    Every number on this page comes from an official or primary source. The numbers built from data tables are computed by the scripts in the GitHub repository, which also holds the full method (METHODOLOGY.md) with a table of the numbers in the slides and the chapter text. News stories were used only to find official documents.

    • Trade: Statistics Canada's customs records by country, province and product, and Türkiye's own import records from UN Comtrade.
    • Duties: the 2026 Canadian Customs Tariff and Türkiye's 2026 import regime, applied line by line to 2025 trade.
    • Travel and people: Türkiye's border statistics, Canadian Transportation Agency rulings, open data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and the 2021 Census.
    • Energy: Türkiye's energy ministry, EPİAŞ (Türkiye's energy exchange), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Türkiye's energy regulator, the Canada Energy Regulator and Natural Resources Canada.
    • Defence: Global Affairs Canada's Reports on Exports of Military Goods for 2010 to 2025 and its notices to exporters.

    Caveats

    • Two sets of trade records. Türkiye records what it imports from Canada in US dollars when goods arrive; Canada records what it exports in Canadian dollars when goods leave. The totals differ for timing, valuation and currency.
    • Duties are estimates. Türkiye charges duty on the value including freight and insurance, which Canadian export values leave out, so the Canadian-goods figure is a low estimate. Duties charged per tonne are left out.
    • Military exports. The reports count permits used, and leave out most exports to the United States.
    • 2026 is preliminary. Monthly trade for 2026 can still be revised.

    References

    Small numbers in the text link here.

    1. Prime Minister's Office. Statement by Prime Minister Carney and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. October 22, 2026. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/10/22/statement-prime-minister-carney-and-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan
    2. Prime Minister's Office. Prime Minister Carney's historic visit to Türkiye launches new Strategic Partnership. News release, October 23, 2026. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/10/23/prime-minister-carneys-historic-visit-turkiye-launches-new-strategic
    3. Prime Minister's Office. Prime Minister Carney meets with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Readout, October 22, 2026. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2026/10/22/prime-minister-carney-meets-president-turkiye-recep-tayyip-erdogan
    4. Natural Resources Canada and Türkiye's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Joint statement on cooperation in the field of energy. October 2026. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/joint-statement-between-the-minister-of-energy-and-natural-resources-of-canada-and-the-minister-of-energy-and-natural-resources-of-turkiye-on-cooperation-in-the-field-of-energy-892792181.html
    5. Prime Minister's Office. Prime Minister Carney to visit Türkiye to advance partnership across trade and investment, energy, and defence. News release, October 6, 2026. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/10/06/prime-minister-carney-visit-turkiye-advance-partnership-across-trade
    6. United Nations. UN Comtrade database: Türkiye's imports in 2025 by partner, as reported by Türkiye. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&period=2025&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&partner2Code=0&motCode=0&customsCode=C00
    7. Statistics Canada. Table 12-10-0171-01, international merchandise trade by country and product section, annual, 1999 to 2025. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210017101
    8. Prime Minister's Office. Prime Minister Carney strengthens trade and economic partnerships with Singapore. News release, October 29, 2025. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2025/10/29/prime-minister-carney-strengthens-trade-and-economic-partnerships
    9. United Nations. UN Comtrade database: Türkiye's imports in 2025 by HS chapter, from the world and from Canada, as reported by Türkiye. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&period=2025&flowCode=M&cmdCode=AG2&partnerCode=0&partner2Code=0&motCode=0&customsCode=C00 https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&period=2025&flowCode=M&cmdCode=AG2&partnerCode=124&partner2Code=0&motCode=0&customsCode=C00
    10. Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Address Based Population Registration System results, 2025. https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/53899
    11. Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT): monthly exports by province of origin and imports by province of clearance, by country and HS product, 1988 to August 2026 (tables 12-10-0147, 12-10-0148, 12-10-0150 and 12-10-0151, read through Statistics Canada's Web Data Service). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/71-607-X2021004
    12. Türkiye Ministry of Trade. 2026 Import Regime Decision (No. 3350) and Additional Customs Duty Decision (No. 3351), consolidated annexes. https://ticaret.gov.tr/ithalat/ithalat-mevzuati/ithalat-rejimi-karari-igv-karari-ve-ithalat-tebligleri/1-ithalat-rejimi-kararikarar-sayisi3350karar-metni-ve-tablolar-konsolide-edilmis-olup-gunceldir
    13. Canada Border Services Agency. Customs Tariff 2026 (T2026-2). https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/trade-commerce/tariff-tarif/2026/menu-eng.html
    14. Resmî Gazete (Official Gazette of Türkiye). Decision No. 10781, 2026 Turkish Customs Tariff Schedule, December 30, 2025. https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2025/12/20251230M1-2.pdf
    15. Statistics Canada. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 2025 data files: domestic exports by HS8 and imports by HS10. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2021004/zip/CIMT-CICM_Dom_Exp_2025.zip https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2021004/zip/CIMT-CICM_Imp_2025.zip
    16. World Trade Organization. Trade Policy Review: Türkiye, report by the Secretariat, WT/TPR/S/439, 2023 (inward processing). https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/s439_e.pdf
    17. Statistics Canada. 2021 Census of Population, table 98-10-0356-01 (ethnic or cultural origin) and place of birth tables. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810035601
    18. Guinness World Records. Most countries flown to by an airline (Turkish Airlines, 120 countries, September 2023 to September 2024). https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/736843-most-countries-flown-by-a-commercial-airline
    19. Airports Council International World. World's busiest airports, 2025 passenger rankings. July 15, 2026. https://aci.aero/2026/07/15/worlds-busiest-airports-atlanta-holds-asia-climbs-strong-demand-while-asia-pacific-growth-reshape-the-rankings/
    20. Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Border statistics, yearly bulletins: arriving foreign visitors by nationality, 2010 to 2025. https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-249709/yillik-bultenler.html
    21. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Open data: permanent residents by country of citizenship, 2015 to 2026. https://www.ircc.canada.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/EN_ODP-PR-Citz.xlsx
    22. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Open data: study permit holders on December 31 by country of citizenship. https://www.ircc.canada.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/EN_ODP_annual-TR-Study-IS_CITZ_year_end.xlsx
    23. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Open data: work permit holders on December 31 by country of citizenship, International Mobility Program (all purposes) and Temporary Foreign Worker Program. https://www.ircc.canada.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/en_odp_annual-tr-work-imp_citz_year_end_all_purpose.xlsx https://www.ircc.canada.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/EN_ODP_annual-TR-work-TFW_CITZ_year_end.xlsx
    24. Canadian Transportation Agency. Determination A-2025-25, Turkish Airlines request for extra weekly flights. February 14, 2025. https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2025-25
    25. Canadian Transportation Agency. Determination A-2025-77. April 29, 2025. https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2025-77
    26. Air Transat. News release on flights from Montréal to Istanbul, May 29, 2026. https://www.transat.com/en-CA/corporate/media/news-releases/124611
    27. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Temporary public policy for nationals of Türkiye and Syria affected by the earthquakes of February 6, 2023. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/policies-operational-instructions-agreements/public-policies/turkiye-syria-earthquake-2023.html
    28. Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Nuclear power goals: 7.2 GW added by 2035 and over 20 GW by 2050. September 25, 2023. https://enerji.gov.tr/news-detail?id=21184
    29. Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. TÜNAŞ and AtkinsRéalis memorandum on CANDU technology. March 2026. https://enerji.gov.tr/news-detail?id=31758
    30. Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Investment Office. Energy sector: Net Zero 2053 and the Akkuyu plant. https://www.invest.gov.tr/en/Sectors/Pages/energy.aspx
    31. International Atomic Energy Agency. Power Reactor Information System (PRIS): Türkiye's reactors under construction, Akkuyu units 1 to 4. https://pris-stats.iaea.org/
    32. Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. 120,000 MW of wind and solar capacity by 2035. November 4, 2024. https://enerji.gov.tr/news-detail?id=21392
    33. Natural Resources Canada. Uranium and nuclear power facts (2024 production and world share). https://natural-resources.canada.ca/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/uranium-nuclear-power-facts
    34. EPİAŞ (Energy Exchange Istanbul). Türkiye electricity market daily bulletin, December 14, 2025: installed capacity. https://www.epias.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/epias-bulten-14.12.2025.pdf
    35. Energy Market Regulatory Authority of Türkiye (EPDK). 2025 Natural Gas Market Development Report: imports by country. https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/DownloadDocument?id=fSTHy8vYN/Q=
    36. Canada Energy Regulator. Liquefied natural gas exports, shipment detail. https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/imports-exports/liquefied-natural-gas-exports-detail.csv
    37. AtkinsRéalis. Trade release on the CANDU assessment in Türkiye. March 3, 2026. https://www.atkinsrealis.com/en/media/trade-releases/2026/2026-03-03-a
    38. NATO. Defence expenditure of NATO countries, 2026 estimates (military personnel). https://www.nato.int/content/dam/nato/webready/documents/finance/def-exp-2026-en.pdf
    39. Global Affairs Canada. Reports on Exports of Military Goods, 2010 to 2025 (exports to Türkiye by year; 2025 report, table 16, brokering permits). https://international.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/corporate/reports/export-import-controls/strategic-goods-2025
    40. Armenian National Committee of Canada. Submission to the Canada-Türkiye free trade agreement consultation. September 24, 2026. https://anccanada.org/ancc-calls-on-canada-to-protect-export-controls-in-canada-turkey-fta/
    41. Global Affairs Canada. Notice to Exporters No. 1108: export permit applications for Türkiye. January 2024. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/controls-controles/notices-avis/1108.aspx?lang=eng
    42. Global Affairs Canada. Statement from Minister Garneau on the cancellation of export permits to Turkey. April 12, 2021. https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2021/04/statement-fromminister-garneauto-announce-the-cancellation-of-export-permits-to-turkey.html
    Sources: Statistics Canada, UN Comtrade, the Canada Border Services Agency, Türkiye's trade, energy and tourism ministries, Global Affairs Canada, IRCC, the Prime Minister's Office and others, listed in the References. Every number comes from an official or primary source; methods and code are on GitHub.
    The Median Canadian · A curious Canadian explaining Canada through numbers, every week. All posts
    Text and charts: CC BY 4.0, share and adapt with credit. Code: Apache 2.0. Data belongs to its publishers, each under its own licence.