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Alberta Referendum 2026

Unofficial results as of -
1

Waiting for results

Question 10
Remain in Canada, or start the process for a separation referendum?
Remain
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Separation
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Alberta's 87 divisions (ridings). Green: more Remain. Grey: close to even. Red: more separation. Tap to explore.
- voting places reporting

On the ballot, the separation option is called Referendum: starting the legal process for a binding vote on leaving Canada.

Waiting for results.

About this analysis

Results: Elections Alberta unofficial results, checked every 20 seconds. 2023 provincial and by-election results: Elections Alberta. 2025 federal results estimated for each division from Elections Canada polling-station results. Census 2021: Statistics Canada via Alberta's Office of Statistics and Information. Pre-vote polls as published: Angus Reid (Aug 10–13, 1,017 people), Leger (Aug 21–23, 1,001 people), Research Co. (Aug 24–26, 750 people), Abacus Data (Sep 4–7, 1,000 people), 2026, shown among decided respondents (undecided left out). Full sources and methods.

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Patterns

The separation vote sits far below the UCP's 2023 vote

Alberta's divisions, grouped by the UCP's share of the vote in 2023 and by the separation share in 2026.
Seat forecast

If the UCP ran on separation1

Based on the 2026 referendum results. Tap a seat for its numbers.
Call it a toss-up if the top two are within
More patterns: census and federal factors
Every division, placed by the factor you pick and by its Remain vote.

How closely each factor lines up with Remain

Bars to the right go with more Remain, bars to the left with less. Tap one to chart it.
2023 results: Elections Alberta. 2025 federal results are estimated per division from Elections Canada polling-station results. Census 2021 via Alberta Office of Statistics and Information; unemployment was measured in May 2021, during COVID. These patterns describe divisions, not how any individual voted. Seat scenarios are hypothetical.
Counting details
Source: Elections Alberta unofficial results, checked every 20 seconds. Boundaries: Provincial Electoral Divisions (2019), Open Government Licence, Alberta. Percentages are each answer's share of votes cast on that question. Green is the status quo answer, red is the change. Unofficial results are not final until official results are published on October 29, 2026.
The Median Canadian · A curious Canadian explaining Canada through numbers, every week.
Text and charts: CC BY 4.0, share and adapt with credit. Code: Apache 2.0. Data belongs to its sources, listed in About this analysis.